Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.693915 4.006993 4.350899 4.759933 5.237532 5.783147 6.461946
2025-02-09 3.310317 3.730385 4.223710 4.857254 5.667258 6.695648 8.150091
2025-02-16 3.007799 3.469914 4.035956 4.800745 5.842711 7.274617 9.523918
2025-02-23 2.794226 3.280787 3.896234 4.761791 6.004441 7.833855 11.004684
2025-03-02 2.623083 3.122974 3.771748 4.714762 6.130355 8.346473 12.566940
2025-03-09 2.482312 2.989689 3.662535 4.668613 6.239643 8.842615 14.282907
2025-03-16 2.375275 2.891192 3.589146 4.661026 6.400136 9.451574 16.505140
2025-03-23 2.307630 2.839770 3.574833 4.736323 6.701673 10.384163 20.031046
2025-03-30 2.201282 2.727202 3.463122 4.647048 6.705502 10.736464 22.300151
2025-04-06 2.105376 2.623534 3.356743 4.555013 6.689471 11.042210 24.690708
2025-04-13 2.000773 2.502200 3.216712 4.396086 6.529717 10.997994 25.898296
2025-04-20 1.963346 2.474891 3.215137 4.464359 6.805314 12.022618 32.351316
2025-04-27 1.949702 2.482084 3.267573 4.631343 7.308463 13.814279 46.364847
2025-05-04 1.920408 2.464443 3.279956 4.729765 7.691616 15.479086 66.759474
2025-05-11 1.860740 2.398387 3.211410 4.676061 7.737292 16.173990 83.668028
2025-05-18 1.808874 2.341756 3.154659 4.638803 7.814251 17.014133 110.750437
2025-05-25 1.759071 2.286138 3.096461 4.593781 7.866644 17.807129 151.204683
2025-06-01 1.712710 2.233929 3.041112 4.549587 7.914814 18.623150 220.319222
2025-06-08 1.676250 2.195521 3.006511 4.542320 8.052803 19.884759 417.957891
2025-06-15 1.656411 2.181991 3.012444 4.614424 8.404944 22.328957 3547.334795
2025-06-22 1.609878 2.124954 2.942150 4.528931 8.330640 22.755665 NaN
2025-06-29 1.565282 2.069643 2.872660 4.440747 8.238633 23.069784 NaN
2025-07-06 1.511687 1.998747 2.774190 4.288350 7.955242 22.270827 NaN